Just When We Thought the Year was Over

by: Alex Rose

Posted: Dec 30, 2021 / 08:17 PM MST / Updated: Dec 31, 2021 / 12:58 PM MST

 SUPERIOR, Colo. (KDVR) — In a matter of hours, the Marshall Fire burning south of Boulder destroyed more homes than any wildfire in Colorado state history.

High winds pushed the flames east, engulfing entire subdivisions and forcing tens of thousands of Coloradans to leave their homes.

 According to Boulder County Sheriff Joe Pelle, more than 580 homes were burned as of Thursday evening. As of Saturday afternoon, that count jumped to 991 homes and structures burned between Superior, Louisville and unincorporated Boulder County.

While the Marshall Fire may not be the largest in state history, when the damage is completely assessed, it could prove to be twice as destructive as the Black Forest Fire that burned in Southern Colorado nearly a decade ago.

2021 - a Disastrous Year

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (October 8, 2021)

2021 has now tallied the most billion-dollar disasters in the U.S. in a single year, with 18. This surpasses just last year’s count of 17 by the end of September and marks the 7th consecutive year with ten or more billion dollar disasters.

This tally does not include the tornadoes that ripped across the central U.S. on December 10 & 11 which, according to an article published in the Insurance Journal on December 13, 2021, could be the costliest outbreak on record. There is no doubt that natural disasters in the U.S. have become more frequent and more severe.

 SIGNIFICANT FACTS

The number of homeowners who suffer unreimbursed losses due to federally declared disasters keeps increasing.  Virtually every victim suffers some degree of unreimbursed loss.  Here are some reasons why:

·       40% of FEMA disaster assistance applications are denied.

·       30% of private insurance claims following a disaster are denied.

·       survey by Simple Dollar found that while environmental changes are increasing the severity and frequency of natural disasters, just 47% of Americans have home insurance. Also, almost 42% of homeowners wouldn’t pay more to insure their homes due to climate change.

·       According to the insurance industry, 60% of all homes in the U.S. are under-insured by 20% or more.

It is probable that many of these recent tornado victims have casualty insurance that will help offset their loses. However, since we know 60% of all home are uninsured by 20% or more, and most policies are subject to a deductible, nearly all homeowners will suffer some unreimbursed loss. They will qualify to file claims under the IRS casualty loss program.

There is an important distinction to be made here: These victims did not lose the replacement cost of their homes – they lost the “market value” of their homes which likely exceeds replacement value by a significant amount. It is this loss in market value that Disaster Relief computes and which is the basis for claims under the IRS casualty loss program.

 

CoreLogic Estimates $16 Billion to $24 Billion in Insured and Uninsured Flood Losses in the Northeast from Tropical Storm Ida

IRVINE, Calif., September 8, 2021—CoreLogic, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released additional loss estimates for Hurricane Ida, following its initial release estimating between $27 billion & $40 billion in insured and uninsured losses from wind, storm surge and inland flooding in Louisiana and Mississippi. According to this new analysis, specifically for the U.S. Northeast, subsequent Tropical Storm Ida caused an estimated $16 billion to $24 billion in insured and uninsured inland flood losses to residential and commercial properties.

 Total insured flood loss for residential and commercial properties in the U.S. Northeast is estimated to be between $5 billion and $8 billion, while uninsured flood loss for this area is estimated to be between $11 billion and $16 billion. Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut and Massachusetts sustained approximately 90% of the losses.

 “Given the prevalence of multifamily housing and below-ground structures in these areas, we’ll see more extreme interior content damages than we typically see in southern coastal areas,” said Shelly Yerkes, senior leader, insurance solutions at CoreLogic. “For example, many of the heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems in New York City buildings are in the basements, so contents damage should be substantial.”

 After Hurricane Ida made landfall in Port Fourchon, La. on August 26, it continued to travel northeast as it downgraded to a tropical storm status, bringing devastating rainfall of six-to-nine inches in three hours in New York, New Jersey and surrounding states. This record-setting precipitation caused a flash flood event as the rain overwhelmed storm water drainage systems in urban areas where the average monthly rainfall is approximately three inches and little green space exists to absorb sudden inundations of water. Tropical Storm Ida’s flood event affected a region nearby Superstorm Sandy’s impact area in 2012, which caused extensive storm surge-related flooding along the coastlines and shorelines of the East River and the Hudson River. Catastrophic weather events like these are becoming more common.

A record 22 billion-dollar disasters struck the U.S. in 2020 causing a total of $95 billion in damage across the country

By Matthew Cappucci, Jan. 8, 2021 at 3:44 p.m. MST

The year 2020 will go down in the history books as one riddled with a record number of billion-dollar disasters. According to a new report released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Friday, losses in the United States alone tallied a staggering $95 billion from 22 separate billion-dollar events. The previous record for billion-dollar disasters was 16 in 2011 and in 2017.

The year marked the most severe wildfire season across the West to date, with California logging five of its six biggest wildfires in state history. It was also the Atlantic’s busiest hurricane season on record, with 12 landfalling named storms in the United States, while swarms of tornadoes ravaged the South.

From ferocious fires to a historic hurricane season, 2020 took weather to new extremes

The most expensive disasters stemmed from severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Hurricanes and tropical storms were close contenders, plaguing the Gulf Coast with relentless back-to-back strikes.

The disasters stand against the backdrop of a warming climate, with annual average temperatures in the Lower 48 states running 2.4 degrees above the 20th-century baseline. Globally, 2020 tied 2016 for the hottest year on record, according to data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

2020 tied with 2016 for Earth’s hottest year, as global warming overpowered La Niña

Climate change is tied to larger, more extreme fires, hurricanes that intensify more rapidly and other trends that lie behind an increase in disaster damages. Another factor is population growth, with more people and buildings in harm’s way.

“Weather events have always and will always occur,” Steve Bowen, head of catastrophe insight at Aon Insurance, wrote in an email. “But with climate change expected to increasingly affect the behavior of weather events, and if you tie that with more ‘stuff’ in harm’s way, then the expectation is that resultant loss totals will also increase in the future.”

While the number of individual billion-dollar disasters topped the charts, 2020 still lags behind 2005, 2012 and 2017 for overall costs. 2005 hosted a record hurricane season that included storms Rita, Wilma and Katrina, while storms such as Harvey, Irma and Maria raged in 2017. Hurricane Sandy slammed New Jersey and New York City in 2012.

In the West, storms weren’t the problem. In fact, it was the opposite — prolonged drought, extreme heat and widespread, strong offshore wind events, linked in large part to human-caused climate change, contributed to a record wildfire season.

Drought is the sleeper weather story you’ll hear more about in 2021

More than 10 million acres burned across the West, including California’s largest fire on record — the August Complex. It started as 37 individual blazes that merged into a massive fire that torched more than 1 million acres, becoming the state’s first “gigafire.” Some 10,500 structures were damaged or destroyed in California alone.

Multiple wildfires exhibited extreme behavior, yielding smoke plumes towering to 50,000 feet and producing lightning and fire tornadoes.

In Oregon, historic wildfires burned more than 2,000 buildings, while Colorado experienced an extreme fire season as well. The Centennial State’s three largest wildfires on record all took place during 2020. On the whole, wildfires caused $16.5 billion in destruction.

The fires were fueled by persistent hot and dry weather, with California experiencing a long, hot spring, summer and fall, with its warmest August and September on record.

Studies have shown that climate change is causing more extreme fire weather days, which feature exceptional heat and dryness, along with strong and often erratic winds. Global warming has already led to a large increase in the occurrence of huge wildfires in the West, indicating that the massive blazes this year, which fouled the air across a broad region, were no fluke.

In early September, Los Angeles set a record high of 122 degrees, while temperature records fell up and down the Golden State.

That same record heat contributed to a worsening drought that engulfed the West, causing $4.5 billion in mainly agricultural losses.

The record number of billion-dollar events caused 262 deaths during 2020. Bowen says action is needed to address the increased movement of people into at-risk areas.

“While there is heavy focus on the frequency and intensity of events, we need to be equally highlighting that people are moving at an accelerated rate into some of the most vulnerable areas for extreme weather,” wrote Bowen. “It is imperative that we improve awareness around people better preparing their home or business in the face of inevitable [hazards].”

That, Bowen says, starts with knowing one’s own vulnerability. “We need to ensure that people understand the natural peril risk at their location.”

Quantifying Property Risk

2020 was the sixth consecutive year with more than 10 weather and climate events, each of which cost more than $1 billion.

 The illustration below (map and data by CoreLogic) shows the highest risk homes are in California (dominated by earthquake and wildfire), Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska (dominated by tornado/hail), along the Mississippi River (dominated by river flooding and earthquake risk) and large Gulf and Atlantic coastal stretches (dominated by hurricane winds and storm surge/riverine flooding). 

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Low Risk                                                                                 High Risk        From CoreLogic 2020 Climate Change Catastrophe Report

Low Risk High Risk

  From CoreLogic 2020 Climate Change Catastrophe Report

A Look Back at 2020

A review of Disaster Declarations shows that there were 43 Major Declarations in 2020, and 21 Emergency Declarations. These totals do not reflect any declarations associated with COVID, or those pertaining to US territories or tribal lands.

The year marks the sixth consecutive year in which 10 or more billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events have impacted the United States.

And Historic Wildfires

United States agencies stationed at the National Interagency Fire Center in Idaho maintain a "National Large Incident Year-to-Date Report" on wildfires, delineating 10 sub-national areas, aggregating the regional and national totals of burn size, fire suppression cost, and razed structure count, among other data. As of October 21, "Coordination Centers" of each geography report the following:[2]

National Interagency Fire Center Geographic Area Coordination Centers

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What a Season it has Been!

Center for Disaster Philanthropy

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was one for the record books before it even officially started. Researchers and meteorologists began calling for an above-average season in a prediction from University College London on December 19, 2019 – shortly after the end of the 2019 season. As forecasts continued through the winter and spring 2020, they all coalesced around predictions of 15-20 named storms and four major hurricanes. Two months into the season, NOAA released an updated 2020 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on Aug. 6. This updated outlook called for as many as 25 named storms and six major hurricanes, more than double the 1981-2010 historical averages.

To date (Nov. 9) there have been 29 tropical depressions, of which 28 became tropical storms. Twelve became hurricanes, including five major hurricanes. The most recent storm is Hurricane Eta, the seventh letter of the Greek Alphabet (which is used when the list of names designated for the season is finished). This is the first time that the name Eta has been used, and 2020 is now tied with 2005 for the most number of storms in a season. Eta wasn’t used in 2005 as a storm was added retrospectively. The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking two new systems in addition to Hurricane Eta. The first is highly likely to form a tropical depression in the middle of the Atlantic and move east towards North Africa and the Strait of Gibraltar. The second is moderately likely to form a tropical depression in the Caribbean Sea and potentially move towards areas struck by Hurricane Eta.

Through the first part of 2020, the impact of the Atlantic hurricane season was minor, with less than $1 billion in total reported damage through July 27. However, later storms, beginning with Hurricane Isaias, were more damaging, with current assessments coming in close to $6 billion and Hurricane Laura at $10-12 billion. Damage from Sally was estimated to total $8-10 billion. Delta and Zeta damage estimates are not finalized as of yet but are also likely to be substantial.

Sadly, over 200 people have lost their lives so far in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. FEMA has issued several Emergency Declarations and Major Disaster Declarations. An emergency declaration allows a local or state government to use resources to respond but does not implicate any federal spending. A major disaster declaration provides for individual and/or public assistance spending from the federal government with a cost-share obligation from the states/territories.