2018's Billion Dollar Disasters in Context
BY ADAM B. SMITH - PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 7, 2019
Last Page added by Mark L. Stockton
During 2018, the U.S. experienced a very active year of weather and climate disasters. In total, the U.S. was impacted by 14 separate billion-dollar disaster events: two tropical cyclones, eight severe storms, two winter storms, drought, and wildfires. The past three years (2016-2018) have been historic, with the annual average number of billion-dollar disasters being more than double the long-term average. The number and cost of disasters are increasing over time due to a combination of increased exposure, vulnerability, and the fact that climate change is increasing the frequency of some types of extremes that lead to billion-dollar disasters.
Number of events
The 14 separate U.S. billion-dollar disasters in 2018 represent the 4th highest total number of events, behind only the years 2017 (16 events), 2011 (16) and 2016 (15). The most recent years of 2018, 2017 and 2016 have all been historic in the number of billion-dollar disasters that have impacted the U.S. – totaling 45 separate events. This is a 3-year average of 15 disaster events / year, the highest on record, and well above the annual inflation-adjusted average of 6.2 events per year (1980-2018). In addition, this 3-year average even exceeds the annual inflation-adjusted average of 12.6 events per year over the last 5-years (2014-2018).
Cost Comparisons
The year 2018 also experienced the 4th highest total costs ($91.0 billion). The combined costs of the 2018 disasters trails only the years 2017 ($312.7 billion), 2005 ($220.8 billion) and 2012 ($128.6 billion) when all years are inflation-adjusted to January 2019 dollars.
Worrisome trends
Keep in mind that these estimates do not reflect the total cost of U.S. weather and climate disasters, only those associated with events in excess of $1 billion in damages. However, these extreme events do account for the majority (>80%) of the damage from all recorded U.S. weather and climate events (NCEI; Munich Re). These billion-dollar disaster events are becoming an increasingly larger percentage of the cumulative damage from the full distribution of weather-related events at all scales and loss levels. Clearly, the historically large U.S. losses from hurricanes and wildfires over the last few years have further skewed the total distribution of extreme weather costs. This increase reflects a combination of increased exposure, vulnerability and the fact the climate change is playing an increasing role in the increasing frequency in some types of extremes that lead to billion-dollar disasters.
The Historic U.S. Billion-dollar Disasters of 2018
Among the weather and climate-related disasters to affect the U.S. in 2018, the following caused the most damaging impacts and broke records.
Western Wildfires, California Firestorms (Summer-Fall 2018)
In 2018, California experienced its costliest, deadliest, and largest wildfires to date, with records back to 1933. The Camp Fire was the costliest and deadliest wildfire in state history, destroying more than 18,500 buildings.
California also endured its largest wildfire on record—the Medincino Complex Fire, which burned more than 450,000 acres.
Additionally, California was impacted by other destructive wildfires: the Carr Fire in Northern California and the Woolsey Fire in Southern California.
The total 2018 wildfire costs in California (with minor costs in other Western states) approached $24 billion, a new U.S. record. In total, more than 8.7 million acres burned across the U.S. during 2018, which is well above the 10-year average (2009-2018) of 6.8 million acres.
Hurricane Florence (September 13-16, 2018)
Hurricane Florence was a large and very slow moving hurricane that produced extreme rainfall across eastern North Carolina (up to 35.93") and South Carolina (up to 23.81"). Florence made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane at Wrightsville Beach, NC, with damaging storm surge up to 10 feet and wind gusts reported over 100 mph. However, the majority of the damage caused by Florence was due to the rainfall inland, which caused many rivers to surpass previous record flood heights.
Hurricane Michael (October 10-11, 2018)
Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Michael made landfall at Mexico Beach, Florida, with devastating winds of 155 mph and storm surge in excess of 15 feet. Mexico Beach was nearly destroyed, while Panama City suffered extensive damage.
The rising frequency of billion-dollar disaster events
The U.S. has experienced a rising number of events that cause significant amounts of damage. From 1980–2018, the annual average number of billion-dollar events is 6.2 (CPI-adjusted). For the most recent 5 years (2014–2018), the annual average is 12.6 events (CPI-adjusted).
The increase in population and material wealth over the last several decades are an important factor for the increased damage potential. These trends are further complicated by the fact that many population centers and infrastructure exist in vulnerable areas like coasts and river floodplains, while building codes are often insufficient in reducing damage from extreme events.
Climate change is also paying a role in the increasing frequency of some types of extreme weather that lead to billion-dollar disasters—most notably the rise in vulnerability to drought, lengthening wildfire seasons in the Western states, and the potential for extremely heavy rainfall becoming more common in the eastern states. Each of these changes in extremes are becoming more visible in relation to the influence of climate change (NCA 2018).
The geography of billion-dollar disaster events by type
The U.S. is weather and climate conscious for good reason, as each geographic region faces a unique combination of persistent hazards. The maps below reflect the frequency with which each state has been part of a billion-dollar disaster event (i.e., the totals do not mean that each state alone suffered $1 billion in losses for each event).
In total, from 1980–2018, the U.S. South/Central and Southeast regions experienced a higher frequency of billion-dollar disaster events than any other region, as shown in the red total disaster frequency map. The South region has also suffered the highest cumulative damage costs reflecting the cumulative diversity, frequency, and severity of weather and climate events impacting these regions.
Each state has been affected by at least 1 billion-dollar disaster since 1980. Texas has experienced the highest number of events (104) and is one of the few states that have been impacted by all seven types of the billion-dollar disasters we analyze.
The Number of IRS Casualty Loss Claims Filed in 2018
Despite the number of severe disasters that occurred in 2018, The IRS reports that only 25,440 individual tax returns of all types included Casualty or Theft Loss Deductions. The percentage of disaster victims who file Casualty Loss claims is consistently fewer than 5%.
